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当贸易摩擦遇上“六稳”,中国经济如何嬗变

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年11月15日 08:27:23
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(四)(是)(新)(消)(费)(、升)(级)(类)(消)(费)(依)(然)(增)(长)(较)(快)(。1-8月)(,实)(物)(商)(品)(网)(上)(零)(售)(额)(增)(长)(28.6%,占)(社)(会)(消)(费)(品)(零)(售)(总)(额)(的)(比)(重)(为)(17.3%,比)(上)(年)(同)(期)(提)(高)(3.5个)(百)(分)(点)(;非)(实)(物)(商)(品)(网)(上)(零)(售)(额)(增)(长)(27.2%;化)(妆)(品)(类)(、家)(具)(类)(商)(品)(零)(售)(额)(同)(比)(分)(别)(增)(长)(12.6%和)(10.2%,增)(速)(分)(别)(比)(社)(会)(消)(费)(品)(零)(售)(总)(额)(快)(3.3和)(0.9个)(百)(分)(点)(。
2.内)(需)((投)(资)(和)(消)(费)()持)(续)(放)(缓)(,供)(给)(端)((工)(业)(生)(产)(和)(服)(务)(业)()随)(之)(开)(始)(走)(弱)(,经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(增)(大)(。今)(年)(三)(季)(度)(消)(费)(、投)(资)(增)(长)(仍)(在)(走)(弱)(。1-8月)(社)(会)(消)(费)(品)(零)(售)(总)(额)(同)(比)(增)(长)(9.3%,分)(别)(较)(上)(半)(年)(、上)(年)(同)(期)(低)(0.1、1.1个)(百)(分)(点)(。消)(费)(增)(速)(持)(续)(放)(缓)(与)(汽)(车)(、居)(住)(消)(费)(放)(缓)(有)(关)(,也)(受)(居)(民)(收)(入)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(、居)(民)(杠)(杆)(率)(上)(升)(等)(因)(素)(制)(约)(。
受)(基)(础)(设)(施)(投)(资)(持)(续)(放)(缓)(的)(影)(响)(,固)(定)(资)(产)(投)(资)(继)(续)(减)(速)(。1-8月)(,投)(资)(累)(计)(增)(长)(5.3%,分)(别)(较)(上)(半)(年)(、上)(年)(同)(期)(降)(低)(0.7、2.5个)(百)(分)(点)(。因)(此)(,虽)(然)(外)(部)(经)(济)(总)(体)(复)(苏)(,中)(国)(出)(口)(相)(对)(平)(稳)(,1-8月)(出)(口)(同)(比)(增)(长)(12.2%,高)(于)(上)(年)(同)(期)(水)(平)(,但)(包)(括)(投)(资)(和)(消)(费)(在)(内)(的)(内)(需)(整)(体)(走)(弱)(带)(动)(了)(工)(业)(生)(产)(的)(放)(缓)(。
3.CPI小)(幅)(反)(弹)(,PPI同)(比)(回)(落)(。进)(入)(三)(季)(度)(,CPI涨)(幅)(扩)(大)(到)(2%以)(上)(,7、8月)(份)(分)(别)(为)(2.1%、2.3%。一)(方)(面)(,受)(食)(品)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(较)(多)(影)(响)(,在)(高)(温)(、洪)(涝)(、疫)(情)(等)(影)(响)(下)(,鲜)(菜)(、蛋)(类)(、猪)(肉)(等)(价)(格)(较)(快)(上)(涨)(,8月)(当)(月)(食)(品)(价)(格)(涨)(幅)(为)(1.7%,较)(上)(月)(提)(高)(1.2个)(百)(分)(点)(;另)(一)(方)(面)(,非)(食)(品)(价)(格)(涨)(幅)(扩)(大)(,特)(别)(是)(受)(房)(租)(上)(涨)(、暑)(期)(旅)(游)(旺)(季)(影)(响)(,居)(住)(、交)(通)(和)(通)(信)(、教)(育)(文)(化)(和)(娱)(乐)(等)(价)(格)(涨)(幅)(扩)(大)(。在)(上)(年)(高)(基)(数)(下)(,PPI同)(比)(回)(落)(,1-8月)(份)(涨)(幅)(为)(4%,较)(上)(年)(同)(期)(回)(落)(2.4个)(百)(分)(点)(。
4.值)(得)(关)(注)(的)(三)(大)(变)(化)(。一)(是)(房)(价)(过)(快)(上)(涨)(对)(其)(他)(消)(费)(存)(在)(一)(定)(的)(“挤)(出)(”效)(应)(。与)(房)(地)(产)(密)(切)(相)(关)(的)(居)(住)(、生)(活)(用)(品)(及)(服)(务)(相)(关)(消)(费)(支)(出)(明)(显)(加)(快)(,今)(年)(上)(半)(年)(增)(速)(分)(别)(为)(12.4%、11.7%,较)(上)(年)(同)(期)(提)(高)(4.1、5.2个)(百)(分)(点)(,而)(教)(育)(文)(化)(娱)(乐)(、其)(他)(用)(品)(及)(服)(务)(消)(费)(支)(出)(增)(速)(分)(别)(降)(至)(7.2%、7.1%,低)(于)(居)(民)(人)(均)(消)(费)(支)(出)(8.7%的)(增)(长)(水)(平)(。二)(是)(失)(业)(率)(有)(所)(抬)(头)(。今)(年)(8月)(份)(城)(镇)(调)(查)(失)(业)(率)(为)(5%,较)(6月)(末)(上)(升)(0.2个)(百)(分)(点)(,需)(密)(切)(关)(注)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(、去)(产)(能)(、环)(保)(政)(策)(、投)(资)(增)(速)(回)(落)(等)(变)(化)(对)(就)(业)(的)(影)(响)(。三)(是)(企)(业)(亏)(损)(面)(有)(所)(扩)(大)(。1-7月)(,规)(模)(以)(上)(工)(业)(企)(业)(亏)(损)(企)(业)(亏)(损)(额)(同)(比)(增)(长)(5.5%,较)(上)(半)(年)(增)(加)(1.9个)(百)(分)(点)(。
四)(季)(度)(经)(济)(形)(势)(展)(望)(
展)(望)(四)(季)(度)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(下)(行)(压)(力)(将)(有)(所)(缓)(解)(,总)(体)(将)(保)(持)(平)(稳)(运)(行)(。从)(外)(部)(环)(境)(看)(,全)(球)(经)(济)(近)(期)(仍)(将)(稳)(健)(复)(苏)(,但)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(加)(大)(了)(全)(球)(经)(济)(运)(行)(的)(不)(确)(定)(性)(,主)(要)(经)(济)(体)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(转)(向)(,新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(经)(济)(金)(融)(脆)(弱)(性)(仍)(然)(较)(高)(,对)(全)(球)(经)(济)(持)(续)(复)(苏)(带)(来)(风)(险)(。从)(国)(内)(看)(,在)(财)(政)(货)(币)(政)(策)(调)(整)(之)(下)(,随)(着)(地)(方)(债)(发)(行)(力)(度)(增)(大)(,基)(建)(投)(资)(有)(望)(企)(稳)(回)(升)(。供)(给)(侧)(结)(构)(性)(改)(革)(深)(入)(推)(进)(,产)(能)(过)(剩)(行)(业)(供)(求)(关)(系)(明)(显)(改)(善)(,企)(业)(经)(营)(成)(本)(持)(续)(降)(低)(,企)(业)(盈)(利)(保)(持)(较)(快)(增)(长)(。产)(业)(结)(构)(持)(续)(优)(化)(,新)(产)(业)(、新)(产)(品)(、新)(业)(态)(持)(续)(加)(快)(发)(展)(,居)(民)(升)(级)(类)(消)(费)(、服)(务)(类)(消)(费)(保)(持)(较)(快)(增)(长)(,经)(济)(发)(展)(质)(量)(不)(断)(提)(高)(。但)(居)(民)(负)(债)(增)(加)(制)(约)(消)(费)(加)(快)(增)(长)(,去)(产)(能)(、去)(杠)(杆)(、环)(保)(政)(策)(等)(持)(续)(推)(进)(不)(可)(避)(免)(给)(经)(济)(带)(来)(一)(定)(下)(行)(压)(力)(,物)(价)(涨)(幅)(有)(所)(上)(升)(。预)(计)(四)(季)(度)(GDP增)(长)(6.7%左)(右)(,比)(三)(季)(度)(回)(升)(0.1个)(百)(分)(点)(,全)(年)(增)(长)(6.7%左)(右)(,比)(上)(年)(回)(落)(0.2个)(百)(分)(点)(。
1.从)(需)(求)(侧)(看)(,出)(口)(见)(顶)(放)(缓)(,进)(口)(保)(持)(较)(快)(增)(长)(。四)(季)(度)(中)(国)(外)(贸)(面)(临)(的)(不)(确)(定)(性)(较)(大)(,既)(有)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(冲)(击)(,也)(有)(全)(球)(经)(济)(和)(贸)(易)(周)(期)(性)(趋)(缓)(的)(影)(响)(。美)(国)(于)(9月)(24日)(起)(,对)(原)(产)(于)(中)(国)(的)(2000亿)(美)(元)(商)(品)(加)(征)(10%的)(关)(税)(,并)(将)(于)(2019年)(1月)(1日)(将)(加)(征)(关)(税)(税)(率)(上)(调)(至)(25%。这)(一)(规)(模)(远)(大)(于)(前)(期)(的)(500亿)(美)(元)(,四)(季)(度)(出)(口)(可)(能)(因)(此)(受)(到)(一)(定)(影)(响)(。同)(时)(,WTO报)(告)(显)(示)(,三)(季)(度)(全)(球)(贸)(易)(景)(气)(指)(数)(为)(100.3,较)(二)(季)(度)(的)(101.8继)(续)(下)(滑)(,逼)(近)(荣)(枯)(线)(。三)(季)(度)(以)(来)(,欧)(盟)(制)(造)(业)(PMI延)(续)(今)(年)(持)(续)(回)(落)(势)(头)(,新)(兴)(市)(场)(贸)(易)(又)(受)(到)(严)(重)(的)(汇)(率)(动)(荡)(冲)(击)(。在)(四)(季)(度)(美)(欧)(进)(一)(步)(收)(紧)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,全)(球)(贸)(易)(景)(气)(放)(缓)(会)(影)(响)(中)(国)(出)(口)(。政)(策)(变)(化)(将)(对)(进)(口)(增)(长)(形)(成)(支)(撑)(。随)(着)(财)(政)(加)(快)(支)(出)(进)(度)(、基)(建)(投)(资)(发)(力)(,上)(游)(产)(品)(进)(口)(数)(量)(和)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(价)(格)(将)(加)(快)(上)(升)(。同)(时)(,首)(届)(进)(口)(博)(览)(会)(将)(在)(四)(季)(度)(举)(办)(,一)(大)(批)(进)(口)(订)(单)(的)(签)(订)(也)(会)(助)(推)(进)(口)(平)(稳)(增)(长)(。
消)(费)(增)(长)(难)(有)(明)(显)(改)(善)(。一)(方)(面)(,四)(季)(度)(政)(府)(“十)(大)(扩)(消)(费)(行)(动)(”持)(续)(推)(进)(,新)(个)(税)(基)(本)(费)(用)(减)(除)(标)(准)(提)(高)(,居)(民)(可)(支)(配)(收)(入)(将)(有)(所)(增)(加)(,这)(有)(利)(于)(促)(进)(消)(费)(潜)(力)(释)(放)(。但)(另)(一)(方)(面)(,近)(些)(年)(随)(着)(居)(民)(购)(房)(增)(加)(、消)(费)(习)(惯)(变)(化)(,居)(民)(负)(债)(明)(显)(增)(加)(,近)(三)(年)(1-8月)(份)(居)(民)(新)(增)(贷)(款)(平)(均)(为)(4.7万)(亿)(元)(,远)(高)(于)(2013-2015年)(同)(期)(2.6万)(亿)(元)(的)(平)(均)(水)(平)(,这)(会)(对)(消)(费)(增)(长)(形)(成)(制)(约)(。预)(计)(四)(季)(度)(消)(费)(增)(速)(将)(略)(好)(于)(三)(季)(度)(,但)(仍)(将)(弱)(于)(上)(年)(同)(期)(。实)(物)(消)(费)(品)(中)(,受)(汽)(车)(购)(置)(税)(优)(惠)(政)(策)(退)(出)(影)(响)(,占)(比)(较)(大)(的)(汽)(车)(消)(费)(增)(速)(仍)(将)(放)(缓)(。与)(此)(同)(时)(,网)(上)(零)(售)(、升)(级)(类)(商)(品)(、服)(务)(类)(消)(费)(仍)(会)(保)(持)(较)(快)(增)(长)(。
投)(资)(增)(长)(有)(望)(企)(稳)(回)(升)(。一)(是)(四)(季)(度)(基)(建)(投)(资)(将)(企)(稳)(回)(升)(。近)(期)(地)(方)(政)(府)(债)(券)(发)(行)(加)(快)(,7、8月)(份)(共)(发)(行)(1.64万)(亿)(元)(,超)(过)(上)(半)(年)(发)(行)(总)(额)(。7月)(31日)(中)(央)(政)(治)(局)(会)(议)(提)(出)(要)(加)(大)(基)(础)(设)(施)(领)(域)(补)(短)(板)(力)(度)(,财)(政)(支)(出)(进)(度)(将)(有)(所)(加)(快)(。这)(有)(助)(于)(保)(障)(基)(建)(项)(目)(投)(资)(资)(金)(。二)(是)(由)(于)(工)(业)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(保)(持)(较)(快)(增)(长)(,政)(府)(推)(动)(疏)(通)(货)(币)(政)(策)(传)(导)(机)(制)(,鼓)(励)(金)(融)(机)(构)(支)(持)(实)(体)(经)(济)(融)(资)(,预)(计)(制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(增)(长)(将)(继)(续)(改)(善)(。三)(是)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(保)(持)(较)(快)(增)(长)(。虽)(然)(房)(地)(产)(政)(策)(严)(调)(控)(趋)(势)(未)(变)(,相)(关)(融)(资)(也)(持)(续)(收)(紧)(,但)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(预)(期)(仍)(在)(,一)(些)(去)(库)(存)(较)(快)(、需)(求)(较)(旺)(的)(地)(区)(进)(入)(补)(库)(存)(阶)(段)(。
2.从)(供)(给)(侧)(看)(,工)(业)(生)(产)(将)(小)(幅)(回)(升)(。一)(是)(财)(政)(金)(融)(政)(策)(将)(协)(同)(发)(力)(,加)(大)(对)(实)(体)(经)(济)(支)(持)(力)(度)(,财)(政)(将)(聚)(焦)(减)(税)(降)(费)(,金)(融)(政)(策)(将)(注)(重)(疏)(通)(货)(币)(信)(贷)(政)(策)(传)(导)(机)(制)(,企)(业)(营)(商)(环)(境)(改)(善)(。二)(是)(宏)(观)(政)(策)(有)(所)(放)(松)(,基)(建)(投)(资)(企)(稳)(回)(升)(,内)(需)(或)(有)(所)(改)(善)(。三)(是)(产)(业)(结)(构)(持)(续)(优)(化)(,高)(技)(术)(行)(业)(、战)(略)(性)(新)(兴)(产)(业)(仍)(将)(保)(持)(较)(快)(增)(长)(,去)(产)(能)(推)(动)(钢)(铁)(、煤)(炭)(等)(行)(业)(产)(能)(利)(用)(率)(提)(升)(,相)(关)(行)(业)(增)(加)(值)(增)(速)(回)(升)(、利)(润)(大)(幅)(增)(长)(。但)(与)(此)(同)(时)(,中)(美)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(升)(级)(将)(影)(响)(出)(口)(增)(长)(,可)(能)(对)(相)(关)(工)(业)(企)(业)(造)(成)(一)(定)(冲)(击)(,去)(杠)(杆)(、环)(保)(政)(策)(等)(持)(续)(推)(进)(短)(期)(仍)(会)(影)(响)(工)(业)(生)(产)(。综)(合)(来)(看)(,预)(计)(四)(季)(度)(工)(业)(增)(加)(值)(增)(长)(将)(较)(三)(季)(度)(有)(所)(回)(升)(。
3.CPI涨)(幅)(扩)(大)(但)(整)(体)(可)(控)(,PPI涨)(幅)(持)(续)(回)(落)(。四)(季)(度)(食)(品)(价)(格)(或)(仍)(将)(回)(升)(。受)(加)(征)(关)(税)(、局)(部)(地)(区)(出)(现)(霜)(降)(影)(响)(,大)(豆)(价)(格)(将)(有)(所)(上)(涨)(;猪)(瘟)(疫)(情)(扩)(散)(也)(将)(使)(得)(猪)(肉)(价)(格)(延)(续)(涨)(势)(;近)(期)(台)(风)(引)(起)(多)(地)(降)(雨)(,也)(会)(推)(动)(食)(品)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(;美)(国)(对)(伊)(朗)(制)(裁)(存)(在)(不)(确)(定)(性)(,原)(油)(价)(格)(存)(在)(上)(涨)(压)(力)(,输)(入)(性)(通)(胀)(压)(力)(或)(有)(所)(加)(大)(。同)(时)(,人)(力)(成)(本)(上)(升)(、房)(租)(上)(涨)(等)(也)(会)(带)(动)(消)(费)(物)(价)(上)(涨)(。预)(计)(四)(季)(度)(CPI涨)(幅)(将)(继)(续)(扩)(大)(。但)(考)(虑)(到)(需)(求)(难)(有)(明)(显)(改)(善)(,货)(币)(环)(境)(不)(会)(明)(显)(放)(松)(,通)(胀)(将)(相)(对)(可)(控)(。在)(去)(产)(能)(、环)(保)(政)(策)(落)(实)(推)(进)(下)(,相)(关)(工)(业)(产)(品)(价)(格)(或)(维)(持)(高)(位)(,但)(考)(虑)(到)(上)(年)(高)(基)(数)(,PPI涨)(幅)(将)(总)(体)(延)(续)(回)(落)(趋)(势)(。
宏)(观)(经)(济)(政)(策)(取)(向)(
当)(前)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(运)(行)(总)(体)(稳)(定)(,但)(也)(出)(现)(了)(一)(些)(新)(问)(题)(、新)(挑)(战)(。按)(照)(7月)(31日)(中)(央)(政)(治)(局)(会)(议)(部)(署)(,为)(推)(动)(经)(济)(高)(质)(量)(发)(展)(,下)(一)(步)(宏)(观)(政)(策)(将)(更)(加)(注)(重)(各)(项)(政)(策)(的)(协)(调)(配)(合)(,合)(力)(做)(好)(“六)(稳)(”工)(作)(。
1.稳)(就)(业)(:六)(稳)(之)(首)(,确)(保)(就)(业)(形)(势)(稳)(定)(。当)(前)(中)(国)(就)(业)(形)(势)(总)(体)(稳)(定)(,但)(去)(产)(能)(、环)(保)(要)(求)(提)(高)(、中)(美)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(加)(剧)(等)(可)(能)(带)(来)(一)(定)(就)(业)(压)(力)(,经)(济)(结)(构)(调)(整)(升)(级)(也)(伴)(随)(就)(业)(结)(构)(性)(调)(整)(压)(力)(。一)(是)(保)(持)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(稳)(定)(,避)(免)(大)(起)(大)(落)(。二)(是)(摸)(清)(就)(业)(变)(动)(情)(况)(,加)(强)(对)(各)(区)(域)(相)(关)(重)(点)(行)(业)(、重)(点)(人)(群)(就)(业)(状)(况)(的)(动)(态)(监)(测)(。对)(因)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(、市)(场)(萎)(缩)(而)(出)(现)(暂)(时)(困)(难)(的)(企)(业)(,引)(导)(金)(融)(机)(构)(与)(企)(业)(共)(度)(难)(关)(。三)(是)(对)(于)(受)(去)(产)(能)(、贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(影)(响)(的)(失)(业)(人)(群)(,做)(好)(转)(岗)(培)(训)(、再)(就)(业)(培)(训)(、失)(业)(生)(活)(保)(障)(等)(服)(务)(,确)(保)(就)(业)(形)(势)(稳)(定)(。四)(是)(发)(挥)(积)(极)(财)(政)(政)(策)(和)(稳)(健)(货)(币)(政)(策)(合)(力)(,进)(一)(步)(推)(动)(减)(税)(降)(费)(措)(施)(切)(实)(落)(实)(到)(位)(,确)(保)(社)(保)(费)(现)(有)(征)(收)(政)(策)(稳)(定)(,引)(导)(资)(金)(流)(向)(实)(体)(经)(济)(领)(域)(,更)(好)(地)(推)(动)(实)(体)(经)(济)(发)(展)(。
2.稳)(金)(融)(:政)(策)(调)(整)(促)(进)(“宽)(货)(币)(”向)(“宽)(信)(用)(”的)(传)(导)(。未)(来)(既)(要)(继)(续)(管)(好)(货)(币)(供)(给)(总)(闸)(门)(,坚)(定)(做)(好)(去)(杠)(杆)(工)(作)(,又)(要)(把)(握)(好)(监)(管)(政)(策)(实)(施)(的)(力)(度)(和)(节)(奏)(,促)(进)(资)(金)(流)(向)(国)(民)(经)(济)(的)(薄)(弱)(环)(节)(,促)(进)(实)(体)(经)(济)(融)(资)(成)(本)(下)(降)(。一)(是)(加)(大)(公)(开)(市)(场)(操)(作)(力)(度)(,引)(导)(市)(场)(流)(动)(性)(合)(理)(充)(裕)(。四)(季)(度)(,在)(地)(方)(债)(券)(发)(行)(提)(速)(背)(景)(下)(,资)(金)(需)(求)(上)(升)(推)(动)(利)(率)(走)(高)(,需)(要)(加)(大)(公)(开)(市)(场)(操)(作)(力)(度)(,保)(持)(流)(动)(性)(合)(理)(充)(裕)(。二)(是)(疏)(通)(货)(币)(政)(策)(传)(导)(机)(制)(,引)(导)(资)(金)(向)(小)(微)(企)(业)(、绿)(色)(经)(济)(等)(国)(民)(经)(济)(的)(薄)(弱)(环)(节)(流)(动)(。继)(续)(落)(实)(小)(企)(业)(信)(贷)(利)(率)(减)(免)(等)(优)(惠)(政)(策)(,增)(强)(银)(行)(发)(放)(小)(微)(企)(业)(等)(贷)(款)(的)(内)(生)(动)(能)(。适)(度)(调)(低)(地)(方)(债)(券)(风)(险)(权)(重)(,引)(导)(金)(融)(机)(构)(增)(配)(地)(方)(债)(,解)(决)(好)(基)(建)(投)(资)(的)(资)(金)(来)(源)(不)(足)(问)(题)(。三)(是)(稳)(定)(金)(融)(监)(管)(政)(策)(,维)(护)(金)(融)(和)(社)(会)(稳)(定)(。一)(方)(面)(,对)(现)(有)(出)(台)(的)(监)(管)(措)(施)(,要)(加)(强)(“回)(头)(看)(”,评)(估)(取)(得)(的)(效)(果)(及)(存)(在)(的)(不)(足)(,促)(进)(影)(子)(银)(行)(业)(务)(平)(稳)(过)(渡)(。另)(一)(方)(面)(,持)(续)(开)(展)(打)(击)(非)(法)(金)(融)(活)(动)(和)(非)(法)(金)(融)(机)(构)(专)(项)(行)(动)(,对)(当)(前)(频)(繁)(出)(现)(的)(P2P平)(台)(“爆)(雷)(”事)(件)(,要)(强)(化)(监)(管)(,依)(法)(保)(护)(投)(资)(者)(权)(益)(,维)(护)(金)(融)(和)(社)(会)(稳)(定)(。
3.稳)(外)(贸)(:探)(索)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(补)(偿)(机)(制)(,推)(进)(更)(高)(水)(平)(贸)(易)(便)(利)(化)(。贯)(彻)(落)(实)(“稳)(外)(贸)(”工)(作)(方)(针)(,提)(升)(贸)(易)(便)(利)(化)(水)(平)(。一)(是)(加)(强)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(影)(响)(检)(测)(,建)(立)(对)(受)(影)(响)(外)(贸)(企)(业)(的)(补)(偿)(机)(制)(。加)(强)(摸)(清)(涉)(美)(市)(场)(出)(口)(企)(业)(动)(态)(监)(测)(,关)(注)(对)(美)(加)(征)(反)(制)(关)(税)(对)(相)(关)(进)(口)(企)(业)(的)(影)(响)(。二)(是)(对)(受)(国)(际)(市)(场)(冲)(击)(较)(大)(,但)(仍)(有)(发)(展)(前)(景)(的)(重)(点)(优)(质)(企)(业)(予)(以)(适)(当)(倾)(斜)(政)(策)(,帮)(助)(企)(业)(度)(过)(暂)(时)(困)(难)(,积)(极)(开)(拓)(多)(元)(化)(出)(口)(市)(场)(,降)(低)(对)(美)(国)(市)(场)(依)(赖)(度)(。三)(是)(继)(续)(深)(化)(外)(贸)(“单)(一)(窗)(口)(”、无)(纸)(化)(通)(关)(、“一)(单)(通)(关)(”等)(贸)(易)(便)(利)(化)(改)(革)(,在)(进)(出)(口)(环)(节)(收)(费)(、通)(关)(时)(间)(、通)(关)(成)(本)(等)(方)(面)(向)(国)(际)(一)(流)(水)(平)(对)(标)(看)(齐)(,让)(外)(贸)(企)(业)(减)(负)(前)(行)(。四)(是)(根)(据)(企)(业)(综)(合)(税)(负)(成)(本)(考)(虑)(降)(低)(出)(口)(退)(税)(率)(,加)(快)(出)(口)(退)(税)(进)(度)(,降)(低)(出)(口)(查)(验)(率)(,加)(大)(对)(外)(贸)(企)(业)(尤)(其)(是)(中)(小)(企)(业)(信)(贷)(投)(放)(。
4.稳)(外)(资)(:营)(造)(宽)(松)(有)(序)(的)(外)(商)(投)(资)(环)(境)(。一)(是)(加)(快)(制)(定)(出)(台)(《外)(国)(投)(资)(法)(》,给)(外)(资)(企)(业)(提)(供)(更)(好)(的)(法)(律)(权)(益)(保)(护)(,在)(知)(识)(产)(权)(、产)(业)(政)(策)(、公)(平)(执)(法)(等)(方)(面)(保)(障)(外)(资)(参)(与)(市)(场)(竞)(争)(,向)(全)(球)(投)(资)(者)(展)(示)(一)(个)(稳)(定)(、法)(治)(的)(中)(国)(市)(场)(,使)(中)(国)(继)(续)(成)(为)(外)(国)(企)(业)(投)(资)(的)(首)(选)(之)(地)(。二)(是)(借)(鉴)(世)(界)(银)(行)(等)(国)(际)(机)(构)(经)(验)(,结)(合)(中)(国)(实)(际)(情)(况)(,引)(入)(国)(际)(第)(三)(方)(评)(估)(,建)(设)(全)(国)(统)(一)(标)(准)(的)(营)(商)(环)(境)(评)(价)(体)(系)(,客)(观)(分)(析)(各)(地)(在)(打)(造)(一)(流)(营)(商)(环)(境)(方)(面)(存)(在)(的)(薄)(弱)(环)(节)(,打)(造)(稳)(定)(公)(平)(透)(明)(、可)(预)(期)(的)(外)(商)(经)(营)(环)(境)(。三)(是)(尽)(快)(推)(出)(海)(南)(自)(由)(贸)(易)(港)(总)(体)(方)(案)(,加)(速)(推)(进)(中)(欧)(投)(资)(协)(定)(、中)(日)(韩)(自)(贸)(协)(定)(等)(重)(要)(谈)(判)(,争)(取)(早)(日)(达)(成)(一)(致)(,进)(一)(步)(扩)(大)(外)(资)(市)(场)(准)(入)(。
5.稳)(投)(资)(:聚)(焦)(投)(资)(效)(益)(和)(效)(率)(,促)(进)(向)(高)(质)(量)(投)(资)(转)(型)(。要)(发)(挥)(好)(投)(资)(对)(改)(善)(供)(给)(结)(构)(的)(关)(键)(作)(用)(,助)(推)(投)(资)(效)(益)(和)(效)(率)(提)(升)(。一)(是)(规)(范)(发)(展)(PPP,发)(挥)(政)(府)(投)(资)(的)(引)(导)(作)(用)(。未)(来)(,应)(进)(一)(步)(明)(确)(政)(府)(投)(资)(范)(围)(,建)(立)(定)(期)(评)(估)(调)(整)(机)(制)(,不)(断)(优)(化)(投)(资)(方)(向)(和)(结)(构)(,合)(理)(安)(排)(政)(府)(投)(资)(方)(式)(。二)(是)(拓)(宽)(投)(资)(资)(金)(来)(源)(,畅)(通)(投)(资)(项)(目)(融)(资)(渠)(道)(。发)(挥)(大)(中)(型)(银)(行)(的)(“头)(雁)(”效)(应)(,加)(大)(在)(建)(项)(目)(信)(贷)(投)(放)(力)(度)(,合)(理)(确)(定)(实)(体)(经)(济)(利)(率)(,带)(动)(社)(会)(融)(资)(成)(本)(下)(降)(。推)(进)(债)(券)(市)(场)(创)(新)(,丰)(富)(债)(券)(品)(种)(,支)(持)(重)(点)(项)(目)(发)(行)(债)(券)(融)(资)(。三)(是)(支)(持)(投)(资)(下)(滑)(地)(区)(转)(型)(,促)(进)(区)(域)(投)(资)(协)(调)(发)(展)(,给)(予)(投)(资)(下)(滑)(过)(快)(地)(区)(更)(多)(关)(注)(,在)(区)(域)(政)(策)(、产)(业)(政)(策)(上)(适)(当)(倾)(斜)(。鼓)(励)(中)(西)(部)(地)(区)(省)(份)(改)(善)(本)(地)(产)(业)(转)(移)(承)(接)(条)(件)(,有)(序)(引)(导)(东)(部)(地)(区)(产)(业)(加)(快)(转)(移)(。
6.稳)(预)(期)(:未)(雨)(绸)(缪)(,防)(范)(外)(部)(冲)(击)(对)(金)(融)(市)(场)(的)(扰)(动)(。未)(来)(一)(段)(时)(间)(,市)(场)(预)(期)(存)(在)(非)(理)(性)(变)(化)(的)(可)(能)(。从)(外)(部)(看)(,中)(美)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(、主)(要)(经)(济)(体)(货)(币)(政)(策)(分)(化)(、新)(兴)(市)(场)(金)(融)(动)(荡)(等)(外)(部)(冲)(击)(事)(件)(仍)(将)(持)(续)(发)(酵)(,加)(剧)(了)(金)(融)(市)(场)(运)(行)(的)(不)(稳)(定)(性)(。从)(内)(部)(看)(,部)(分)(经)(济)(主)(体)(对)(经)(济)(去)(杠)(杆)(的)(阵)(痛)(准)(备)(不)(足)(,一)(旦)(部)(分)(经)(济)(指)(标)(走)(弱)(,悲)(观)(预)(期)(增)(加)(。未)(来)(需)(要)(把)(稳)(预)(期)(工)(作)(放)(在)(更)(加)(重)(要)(位)(置)(。一)(是)(未)(雨)(绸)(缪)(,防)(范)(外)(部)(冲)(击)(对)(金)(融)(市)(场)(造)(成)(过)(大)(的)(冲)(击)(。做)(好)(政)(策)(预)(案)(,隔)(断)(美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(、中)(美)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(演)(化)(升)(级)(、新)(兴)(市)(场)(金)(融)(市)(场)(波)(动)(对)(中)(国)(的)(冲)(击)(,管)(好)(资)(本)(流)(动)(,传)(递)(维)(护)(汇)(率)(稳)(定)(信)(心)(,引)(导)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(预)(期)(保)(持)(稳)(定)(。二)(是)(稳)(定)(市)(场)(预)(期)(,增)(强)(投)(资)(信)(心)(。以)(更)(大)(的)(勇)(气)(实)(现)(对)(内)(对)(外)(的)(同)(步)(开)(放)(,以)(更)(加)(便)(捷)(、高)(效)(、公)(平)(的)(营)(商)(环)(境)(稳)(定)(投)(资)(者)(信)(心)(,增)(强)(对)(境)(内)(外)(投)(资)(者)(的)(吸)(引)(力)(。三)(是)(金)(融)(要)(支)(持)(实)(体)(企)(业)(稳)(投)(资)(、稳)(就)(业)(。实)(体)(稳)(是)(金)(融)(稳)(的)(前)(提)(,金)(融)(稳)(是)(实)(体)(稳)(的)(保)(证)(。商)(业)(银)(行)(要)(发)(挥)(信)(贷)(支)(持)(对)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(牵)(引)(作)(用)(,支)(持)(实)(体)(经)(济)(盘)(活)(存)(量)(,优)(化)(增)(量)(,确)(保)(信)(贷)(投)(放)(的)(连)(续)(性)(、稳)(定)(性)(,促)(进)(实)(体)(企)(业)(的)(投)(资)(意)(愿)(和)(投)(资)(能)(力)(稳)(步)(增)(长)(。
(课)(题)(组)(组)(长)(:陈)(卫)(东)(,副)(组)(长)(:宗)(良)(,成)(员)(:周)(景)(彤)(、李)(佩)(珈)(、高)(玉)(伟)(、梁)(婧)(、盖)(新)(哲)(、范)(若)(滢)(、李)(赫)()返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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